Samples of Archived Commentaries:
Commentary - April 2009
As you may have noticed, our Market Indicator is now in a Positive mode. Hopefully, you proceeded according to the guidance of our Alert dated 3/23/09 and increased your allocation to equity funds (those designated by "e" in the Ranking Table) to a level of 30-50%. We also hope you did it over the space of a few days as we suggested as we have had good and bad days since then although the S&P 500 is now about 1 1/2% higher than on 3/23
We have raised the top end of our Equity Allocation Target slightly (it now stands at 30% -60%) and aggressive investors may raise their allocation to equity funds a bit. However, as we feel this is a rally within a bear market, we are going to remain rather conservative. Also the market has gotten a bit extended recently and might have to work off that exuberance in the near term.
Discipline is the most important ingredient in investing. Steel yourselves against any emotional reactions to these times as difficult as that may sound. There will be good money making opportunities amidst these problems but only for those with a predetermined game plan like that which we employ.
The conversation on CNBC and in other investment media is that we are having a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy and hold stocks at bargain prices. Believe us, the conversation will not be so optimistic, or even optimistic at all, at the actual ending to our problems. The consensus is always wrong at important turning points. As we have said before, we feel the problems we are having in the markets and in the economy will be with us for a long time. If the long term, buy-and hold approach just mentioned is wrong, it will be as damaging as it is frustrating. On the other hand, if our long term analysis is wrong as to the longevity of the problems, because we will always defer to the objectivity of the investment models that drive our Market Indicator for investment guidance, our - and your - results should not suffer.